KOMPARATIVNA ANALIZA STRUKTURNIH UNAPREĐENJA ROBNOG IZVOZA SRBIJE 2007-2024.

Abstract

To qualitatively assess the structural progress of Serbian merchandise exports since 2007, we have calculated indices of similarity between the structure of Serbian exports and the structure of EU external merchandise imports. Then, using several reference classifications, we analyzed the qualitative changes in Serbia's exports, through the tendencies of the share of goods at higher levels of processing – which eventual increase would create important conditions for sustainable and stronger export growth.

A clear trend of convergence of the structure of Serbia's merchandise exports with the EU's import demand was detected, as well as an increase in the share of goods at higher levels of processing in domestic exports. Nevertheless, the achieved level of similarity is significantly higher in most of the observed economies of Central and Southeastern Europe, especially in Czechia and Hungary, and the same is the case with the share of products of a higher stage of finalisation in total exports.

The obtained results imply that the promotion of the inflow of foreign direct investments is necessary for the sustainability of trade convergence, as well as for deepening integration into global value chains. Openness to trade and foreign investment is a catalyst for innovation and technological progress, and consequently growth in productivity and competitiveness.