ZNAČAJ ANALIZA OBRTNOG KAPITALA I POSLOVNIH PERFORMANSI PREDUZEĆA

Abstract

One of the key problems of the Serbian economy is the inadequate level and structure of working capital. Working capital management is a crucial component for the survival and development of enterprises. A large number of factors determine both the structure and the optimal requirement of working capital. The currency structure of assets is of key importance for the survival of a company because it defines the required level of liquidity, the ability to adequately settle obligations, and finance operations.

Analyzing the period from 2014 to 2024 in the real sector of the economy, the authors concluded that the economy suffers from a chronic shortage of net working capital. In the absence of a developed capital market, companies resort to external financing through the banking sector, bearing high borrowing costs and risks of changes in conditions, primarily interest rates and repayment terms. During the analyzed period, the real sector allocated over 11 billion euros from current operations to interest expenses.

This paper presents models for analyzing company operations from multiple aspects. The first and fundamental is the analysis of working capital from the standpoint of its requirements, turnover ratio, solvency analysis, possible phases of insolvency, and risks of company insolvency. Then, using a modified Altman Z-score for emerging markets (EM Score), a scoring of a successful Serbian company is provided, based on publicly available financial statements.

Further business analysis of the company (completing the presented model) focuses on bankruptcy probability, ability to meet obligations, break-even point, programmed growth rate, and economic value added. All these settings have been practically tested on a selected domestic company.