CAN THE EU'S RELATIVE ECONOMIC DECLINE BE STOPPED?

Abstract

Using the IMF database, we calculated the average discrete EU GDP growth rates starting from the formal establishment of the union in 1993. Based on the same database, we came to the dynamics of the EU's relative share in global GDP. We calculated the same indicators for the remaining two largest world economies: American and Chinese. Then we made projections of the future trend of the EU GDP, the base which is the forecast of the IMF, as well as the desired one given in the study The Future of European Competitiveness by Mario Draghi. We started from the assumption of an acceleration of EU GDP growth to 2.5% on average per year, and we 'extended' the IMF projections of the GDP dynamics of the USA and China to the period 2029-2038, keeping the forecasted (nominal and real) growth rate for both economies (from the last year of the aforementioned projection). Under these conditions, the EU would reverse the declining trend of its share in the US GDP, while the declining share of the European GDP in the Chinese and global GDP would slow down.