IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON MORTGAGE MARKET: EVIDENCE FROM SERBIA

Apstrakt

The primary objective of this paper is to examine the impact of macroeconomic variables on the growth of residential mortgage loans in Serbia. The analysis is based on a regression model applied to a quarterly dataset encompassing both real and monetary sector indicators for the period Q1 2009 to Q3 2024. The empirical findings contribute to the literature in two notable ways. First, the results suggest that monetary variables generally exert a stronger influence on mortgage loan dynamics than real sector indicators. Second, among all variables analyzed, public investment emerges as the most significant driver of mortgage loan growth. This result is somewhat unexpected and warrants further investigation into the transmission mechanisms through which fiscal activity affects credit expansion.